published on August 08, 2024 in Quick Update

U.S. Open picks include Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth

We’re on a pretty good run at major championships so far, suggesting Jon Rahm to win the Masters and Brooks Koepka to claim the PGA Championship. Now we get another chance to identify a winner at the U.S. Open, which begins Thursday at Los Angeles Country Club.

Course history is mostly thrown out the window at the U.S. Open, though LACC did host the 2017 Walker Cup, which pits top amateurs from the United States against those from Great Britain and Ireland. (Only two golfers in the U.S. Open field — Scottie Scheffler and Collin Morikawa — played in that match-play event, and they combined to go 5-1.) Instead, picking U.S. Open winners tends to rely upon players’ tournament histories, major championship form and recent play in regular professional events. Recent U.S. Open history also suggests the winner is likely to be one of the game’s elite players.

Each of the past 12 U.S. Open winners was ranked in the Official World Golf Ranking’s top 30. The most recent winner from outside the top 30 was Graeme McDowell, who was No. 37 before winning in 2010.
Each of the past 13 winners had a top-25 U.S. Open finish on his résumé. Lucas Glover was the last to win without such a previous finish; he had three missed cuts in three U.S. Open appearances before his 2009 victory.
Each of the past 11 winners made the cut in his previous U.S. Open start and in his previous major appearance. Rory McIlroy was the most recent champion who can’t claim that, having missed the U.S. Open cut in 2010 before winning in 2011.
Seven of the past eight winners and 10 of the past 13 had posted a top-10 finish in at least one of his previous two majors.
Seven of the past nine winners and nine of the past 13 had a top-15 finish in one or both of his previous two starts.
Eleven of the past 14 winners were first-time major champions.

Here’s a rundown of who can win this week’s U.S. Open — along with a look at how they match up with our list of trends — and who might struggle. Last year, this system narrowed down the field to just a few golfers, and eventual winner Matt Fitzpatrick was among them. Let’s see if we can do it again.

All odds taken Tuesday evening from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Who can win

Jon Rahm (+900)

Rahm hasn’t exactly been sharp since his Masters title, which is understandable. Yes, he finished second in a weak field at the Mexico Open, but average-to-worse putting and around-the-green play have led to finishes of T-15, T-50 and T-16 at the Heritage, PGA Championship and Memorial, all elite-field events. But look at his results in the three tournaments heading into this year’s Masters: T-39 at the Arnold Palmer, a withdrawal at the Players Championship and T-31 at the Match Play. Rahm has shown he can turn it on at a major, in other words, and five of his 11 wins at American courses have come in California, including two this year.

Trend match: Rahm has two major championships and didn’t finish in the top 15 in either of his two previous starts, but he matches the other four trends.

Patrick Cantlay (+1600)

We put Cantlay’s name in this category at nearly every major, and we regret it every time. In 26 major championship appearances, the world’s fourth-ranked golfer has only four top-10 finishes. Two of them, however, were in his past three major appearances: a tie for ninth at this year’s PGA Championship and a tie for eighth at last year’s British Open. Cantlay is one of only a few players in the field who are averaging more than two strokes gained tee to green over his past 36 rounds, and he’s long and accurate off the tee (which tends to come in handy at the U.S. Open, where the rough is always ghoulish). He’s going to win one of these sometime soon, so we’re going back to the well again.

Trend match: Cantlay is the only golfer in the field who’s a perfect 6-for-6 match on our list of trends.

Xander Schauffele (+1800)

Schauffele has yet to win a major, but he certainly shows up: He has played in 25 major championships and has gained more than 10 strokes overall on the field in nine of them. He also has 10 top-10 finishes. His worst U.S. Open finish in six attempts was last year’s tie for 14th; he has been among the top 10 at the other five. And then there’s this nugget from Justin Ray:

Getting deep into the U.S. Open prep work

Since World War II, Xander Schauffele ranks second in strokes gained total per round at the U.S. Open among players without a win (+2.87). Only Bobby Locke (+3.74) has more.

— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) June 9, 2023

Trend match: Schauffele matches five of our six trends.

Viktor Hovland (+1800)

The young Norwegian is coming off a win at the Memorial, an elevated-field event, and he has finished among the top 10 at the past three majors, so he’s in blazing form. He’s also steadily improving around the greens, the skill that had been holding him back over the course of his career. Hovland’s past two U.S. Open appearances didn’t go well, with a withdrawal in 2021 and a missed cut last year, but his other two were a tie for 12th as an amateur in 2019 and a tie for 13th in 2020. Hovland is an aggregate 27 under par over his past three majors, the best such score by seven strokes over No. 2 Scottie Scheffler, and he demands U.S. Open attention this year.

Trend match: Hovland matches 5 of 6 prerequisites.

Jordan Spieth (+3000)

LACC features a whole lot of sloping fairways, so it’s not only a matter of finding the short grass off the tee but finding the spots on the fairway that give you the best access to the green. It’ll take a whole lot of creativity, in other words, and Spieth has that in spades. There were concerns about a recent wrist injury that contributed to missed cuts in two of Spieth’s past four events, but a tie for fifth at the Memorial assuaged those worries. Spieth won the U.S. Open in 2015 and tied for fourth at the Masters this year, so the tournament history and major championship form are there.

Trend match: Spieth has three major victories, which is the only check against him in terms of our six trends.

Cameron Smith (+3000)

Smith’s U.S. Open performances have been substandard. He tied for fourth in his first appearance eight years ago but has three missed cuts and no finish better than a tie for 38th in his six tries since. But like Spieth, the defending British Open champion’s creativity cannot be denied, and there are at least passing similarities between LACC and Augusta National, where Smith has four top-10 finishes in seven Masters appearances. The recent form is there, too: Smith tied for ninth at the PGA Championship and finished T-11 or better in his four most recent LIV Golf tournaments.

Trend match: Smith hits the mark on 5 of 6 prerequisites.

Longer shots

Justin Rose (+4500)

The 2013 U.S. Open champion is having something of a renaissance at 42. He won this year at Pebble Beach, has top-10s at the Players Championship and PGA Championship and is coming off an eighth-place finish at last weekend’s Canadian Open, where he was doomed by basically one hole Sunday (a double bogey at No. 8).

Trend match: Rose hits 5 of 6 of our trends, and the only one he misses — he has a major championship already — is far from disqualifying.

Denny McCarthy (+13000)

The Georgetown Prep and University of Virginia product is quietly putting together a strong season, making 8 of 9 cuts entering the U.S. Open with a second-place finish at the Memorial two weeks ago. (He lost to Hovland in a playoff.) He also tied for seventh at last year’s U.S. Open. McCarthy is far from the biggest hitter off the tee, but he should benefit from the expected firm and fast conditions and is generally accurate.

Trend match: McCarthy is just outside the OWGR top 30 (No. 34), but he matches our other five trends.

Who can’t win

Scottie Scheffler (+650)

If golf only included shots taken from the tee box and fairway, Scheffler probably wouldn’t ever lose. He’s averaging 3.17 strokes gained from tee to green over his past 36 rounds, an astounding number — nearly every other player in the field averages less than two. But Scheffler has been falling apart when it comes time to putt, losing more than half a stroke per round over his past 36 and ranking 148th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting. Even with his problems on the greens, Scheffler has two wins (both at elite-field events) and no finish worse than a tie for 12th since October. That’s crazy, but until Scheffler fixes his putting, I can’t back him to win at LACC, which will feature some tricky greens. Put him in your DFS lineups, maybe bet him to finish top-10 or top-20, but don’t bet the favorite to win.

Max Homa (+3500)

There probably was no hotter golfer over the first three months of the year than Homa, who had a win and five other top-14 finishes in his first seven tournaments of 2023. And you’ll hear a lot this week about how Homa set the LACC course record with a 61 while playing for California at the Pac-12 tournament in 2013. But in 15 major championship appearances, Homa has missed eight cuts and has no finish better than a tie for 13th at last year’s PGA Championship. And while he has top-10s in two of his past three tournaments, they sandwiched a noncompetitive tie for 55th at this year’s PGA Championship. Until Homa shows up at a major, it’s hard to back him.

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